| Affected by various factors, the price of seamless steel pipe has continued to decline. The low point of long-term mine has dropped to 68.5 US dollars (ton price, the same below), returning to the level during the financial crisis in 2008, and the price has reached a new low in five years. Even so, iron ore prices do not see the hope of stabilizing and rebounding, but are facing the possibility of continuing to fall. First of all, in terms of inventory, the current iron ore port inventory is high. With the closing of the year, the pressure on traders' funds continues to increase, and the market is facing selling pressure, which may further depress the price.
With the price of iron ore and other raw materials falling, the profit margin of steel mills has increased, and the enthusiasm for production is high. It is expected that the output will increase instead of decreasing in the off-season. Moreover, according to statistics, the operating rate of blast furnace in China continued to rise by 0.69 percentage points last week, reaching 90.61%. It can be seen that the possibility of continuous increase of output in the middle of the year is still very high. However, due to the shrinking demand in the off-season and no winter storage behavior in the market, steel prices in various regions have been slow down. If the supply pressure continues to increase in the later period, seamless steel pipes will fall into a deeper mire, and it will be more difficult to stop the decline, and it may be difficult to turn around before the year. The purchasing price of coke for steel mills in northern China remains unchanged. Due to the fluctuation of steel market in recent years, the sales pressure of steel market has increased. Affected by this, most steel mills purchase coke in a fixed quantity. In southern China, under the situation of shortage of coking coal resources and high price, the downstream coke enterprises have more restrictions on starting operation, and the inventory of coke enterprises is relatively low, which forms a favorable support for coke price. To sum up, it is expected that the domestic coke market will continue to consolidate in the short term. Yesterday, the weakness of domestic construction steel remained unchanged. The cost of raw materials is loose, and there is still a profit margin for seamless steel pipes. In the off-season, large-scale maintenance and production pressing operations have not been carried out. Due to the high production capacity and obvious shrinkage of terminal demand, the recent steel price decline has slightly accelerated. The performance of Hebei is more obvious, and the resources of large and small factories have fallen below the previous low point, but the downstream is still on the lookout, the overall transaction is weak, and the businesses are bearish on the future market, We will not hesitate to yield profits if we seek quantity. The raw materials are low and the cost of coating is not enough. At the end of the year, the raw material market seemed to have started an abnormal decline mode. The price of seamless steel pipe fell to the low level during the financial crisis in 2008. However, the steel billet fell to 2270 yuan / ton yesterday. It seems that the decline is still not bottoming out, and the price is constantly refreshing people's psychological bottom line; However, the upstream hot coil material price is weak and low, but the profit margin is still large, while the profit space of coating products is compressed. In addition, the demand is not strong, and there are not a few inverted resources. Now the raw materials are falling sharply, the cost support is weak, and the coating rise is hopeless. The leading steel mill to lower profits, but traders order enthusiasm is still low, operation is still cautious. Baosteel, WISCO and Shougang, the leading steel mills, have recently issued futures sales prices in January 2015, all of which have adjusted the prices of long seamless steel tubes steadily or downward, with the range of 70-200. It is worth mentioning that Baosteel's color coated sheet has finally made downward adjustment on the basis of three consecutive quarters of flat trading, and the market upside down situation has slightly eased. However, affected by the shortage of funds, the enthusiasm of traders to order is still not high. Steel mills have been reduced. To a certain extent, it can be seen that the steel mills are mobilizing the enthusiasm of traders to order next year. At the same time, it can be seen that the confidence of the manufacturers is insufficient, and the seamless steel pipes released later are still likely to go down.